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Sweden has reregulated its online gambling market for five years. Jonas Virtanen, a Slotsoo researcher, interviewed people from different industries in this qualitative study. The participants ranged from a researcher to an operator, affiliate and veteran player. Here’s how experts predict the Swedish iGaming Market in 2030.
Participants in the study:
* Romix Limited – Casino Operator
* Anders Nilsson– Gambling Researcher
* Pelle Rylander – Veteran Player
* Johan Hansson – Expert Writer
* Maria Johnsson – Affiliate Marketer
Participants were chosen to give a wide range of perspectives on Sweden’s iGaming sector. Den Svenska Spelbranschen 2020 was conducted in Swedish, and the interview questions sent via email in May. The study had a 35% participation rate. Participants were given a month to respond. This is the translated version of the research for international audiences.
The channelization rate is highly dependent on government actions
Industry experts agree that government actions will have the greatest impact on the rate of channelization. Opinions differ on the direction of development.
Romix Limited, a casino operator, says it all depends on whether or not licensed operators are given the chance to compete in the same way as operators who do not have the Swedish license. The state can encourage more players to use local casinos by easing requirements for those with a licence and giving Spelinspektionen greater power to combat unlicensed alternatives.
Johan Hansson, a writer and one of the respondents, is optimistic about this. He believes that Swedish casinos will always be more accessible to players due to the familiar payment methods, as well as Swedish-language support.
Anders Nilsson, a game researcher, points out that the two ways to calculate channelization are by turnover or by people. It is important to differentiate between these in any discussion. He says that there will always people who wish to play in foreign casinos, but the right strategy can make a marginal difference.
Some respondents think that the likelihood of gambling in casinos that do not have a Swedish licence increasing over the next seven year period is higher. Pelle Rylander has been a casino player for many, many years.
I believe that this is propaganda by the government. “The fact about 75% of people play at Swedish licensed casinos is because they prefer safety to bonuses and loyalty programs. Was Mr Green, Betsson, and the other companies less trustworthy when they had a license from Malta? “When people realise that unlicensed casinos are just as safe as Swedish casinos, they will be more inclined to play at them.”
Majority of Swedes believe that bonus rules will be more relaxed in 2030
Anders Nilsson, a gambling researcher, is the only one who believes that Sweden won’t let go of their bonus restriction (one player bonus per license holder). Maria Johnsson Johan Hansson Pelle Rylander predict instead that the state must relax the rules to retain the players.
Romix Limited, the company that operates Betinia, Campobet and YoYo Casino, criticizes the current restriction of “one bonus per licence”. This rule does not improve the Swedish gaming experience, and it makes Swedes search for other sites. This bonus restriction is not present in other countries. Foreign sites also have a huge advantage because this rule does not apply to them.
Many players also don’t know that this limit is per license holder. The operator receives many complaints from customers who were disappointed when they thought they would be able to get a bonus for each site, despite the fact that the bonus terms clearly state the restriction.
Romix Limited asks politicians and decision makers to review bonus restrictions, and develop an ongoing responsible but less restrictive model. Players would benefit from more bonuses with reasonable restrictions, such as wagering requirements.
Johan Hansson follows the same line and reminds us that all casino bonuses are not equal in terms of responsible gambling.
“It is not bonuses that cause gambling addiction. It’s VIP and loyalty programs. It would be a good idea to review the current system to allow Swedish casinos to offer more bonuses for deposits, but without based on the amount of money you wager. I believe we will see more bonus in 2030 to keep Swedish Players on the Swedish Market.”
The Swedish casino drought is predicted to continue
The respondents all agree that it has been a while since Sweden had new casinos open, and they expect this trend to continue. Johan Hansson believes that the number of gambling companies will not change significantly before the bonus rules are relaxed.
Pelle Rylander predicts a slight decrease in the number of casinos around New Year when many operators’ licenses are expiring. He predicts that there will be only 45-50 operators in 2030 (in June 2023, the number of casinos was 57). Maria Johnsson also follows the same train of thought, mentioning that only one casino was launched in 2023. This was Svenska Spel.
Romix Limited has noticed two trends which are balancing the numbers. One trend is that more and more operators are choosing to get separate licenses for each of their casino sites. On the other hand, the gambling industry is consolidating through mergers and purchases. Meanwhile, the fierce competition forces some players out of the market.
Anders Nilsson believes that there will not be many new players on the market, whether they are suppliers or operators, mainly because of the current competitive environment.
The industry has expressed skepticism about the new licensing requirement for game providers that the government implemented in order to make unlicensed casino less appealing. Johan Hansson thinks that the new license requirement could have the opposite impact if many game providers decide to avoid Sweden in the future. Maria Johnsson predicts that there are also loopholes for the requirement.
It all depends on the ability of Spelinspektionen to ensure that the Swedish laws are adhered to and the extent that they extend even beyond foreign casinos who do not cater for the Swedish market. Maybe game providers will set up separate subsidiaries to continue offering everyone’s favourite games without fear of sanctions.”
It is unlikely but not impossible that Svenska Spel will be sold
Long ago, the industry pressed the state to sell Svenska Spel’s online casino and sport betting division. Participants in the study are cautiously optimistic about 2030. Romix Limited says that Svenska Spel is a stable income for its owners and that they are willing to sell everything at the right price.
Pelle Rylander believes the same thing. He says that the sale is unlikely, given the fact that they launched Momang Casino in the spring. Maria Johnsson is in agreement and believes Svenska Spel’s position as the number one casino will continue for many more years.
Johan Hansson thinks that the state cannot run an online casino and be a legislator or a rule maker at the same time. He believes Svenska Spel’s competitive operations will be sold before the end decade. Anders Nilsson thinks that a lot depends on who wins the next general elections:
“Whether or not parts of Svenska Spel will be sold depends heavily on the political priorities. After all, it is a state-owned, profitable company, and the income from that company must be diverted elsewhere. It is not impossible to sell the company if the current configuration continues after the next elections.
Don’t regulate the market too hard: The industry’s final warning
The final open question of the study allowed the interviewees to speculate freely about the future of the gaming industry by 2030.
Anders Nilsson predicts that Spelinspektionen is more likely to issue fines to combat channelization. He believes that legislators will also pay more attention to affiliate advertising and areas not covered by current gambling laws. He also mentions in the future, we will see more data-driven research from casino operators.
Maria Johnsson believes that in the future, the affiliate gambling business will also be scrutinized. She also predicts that LiveSpins in Sweden will be introduced. This new way to play involves joining the live streamer and playing slots with them.
Pelle Rylander believes that licensed gaming companies are going to find new ways of sneaking around bonus restrictions. This is similar to the exclusive casino jackpots and free tourneys some companies offer. He believes we will also see artificial intelligence (AI), used more to interpret and analyse player habits.
Johan Hansson predicts, for his part, that AI will face more regulations. He says there’s a danger that the government will be so strict with regulations that companies may decide to leave Sweden. Romix Limited makes similar predictions, and encourages policymakers to be careful before imposing more restrictions.
We would expect that the negative political climate that exists in other countries, and that is also observed with online gambling, could lead to more restrictions. When it comes to marketing restrictions, for example. “We hope that policymakers will recognize the advantages of a vibrant, attractive and competitive market that aims to retain players in a safe and stable licensing system.”
